Trading Strategies
Proven strategies and analytical frameworks for prediction markets.
Capital Allocation Strategy
Assign 75% of your capital to a single trade with at least a 75% probability of success. This approach maximizes expected returns while keeping exposure focused on high-confidence outcomes.
Short-Term Focus
Prioritize markets that resolve within 1–2 days. Short time horizons reduce uncertainty and keep your capital moving efficiently.
Avoid Long Waits
Don't lock your money for months. If a market drags on, withdraw early and reinvest in something more active. Momentum matters.
Exit at Peak
When a position reaches ~99% probability, close it. You'll secure almost the full profit while avoiding potential disputes or unexpected reversals at settlement.
Sleep Protection
Before sleeping, if a market might resolve overnight, withdraw 80% of your position. Protects against sudden outcomes while you're offline.
Fast Redeployment
Once a market resolves, reinvest quickly. Capital sitting idle earns nothing—speed compounds gains.
Low-Probability Bets
Use small stakes (1–5%) on outcomes with 1–5% probability, just before deadlines. These can deliver outsized returns if sentiment shifts suddenly.
High Spread Strategy
Buy at $0.10, sell at $0.20. Simple, disciplined spread trading—focus on liquidity and exit discipline.
Safe Bets
Always keep a portion of funds in very high-confidence positions. These serve as a stability anchor in your overall portfolio.
Top Trader PnL Analysis Strategy
Analyze the profit and loss (PnL) of top traders in prediction markets to identify where experienced players are positioning. This reveals valuable directional insights, especially when consistent across major markets.
Example: Top Trader PnL Analysis
Analyze the profit and loss (PnL) of top traders in prediction markets to identify where experienced players are positioning.
For example:
Top 15 holders – Zohran Mamdami: • YES bets: +€2.319M • NO bets: +€1.464M
Top 15 holders – Andrew Cuomo: • YES bets: −€226K • NO bets: +€4.384M
This reveals stronger confidence among top traders in Mamdami's candidacy. While not investment advice, this approach can uncover valuable directional insights—especially when consistent across major markets.
The key is to look for patterns where successful traders are consistently profitable in specific markets or outcomes, indicating they may have superior information or analysis.